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The business

Harbor Fabrication, a contract fabricator with about $26M in sales. Steel and components are bought for each job, customers pay in milestones weeks after the materials arrive, and a $3.0M credit line carries the gap.

What was going wrong

Every large commitment was a guess. The team could see the bank balance and the order book, but not the week where the two would collide, so purchases were either delayed too long or approved on optimism.

Cash flowPurchase commitmentsPayment terms

The question it answers

If I approve this today, which week does it hurt?

Your committed spend and expected receipts on one line, with the week the balance goes under the buffer.

1Where it goes wrong

A purchase order that looks affordable on the P&L and lands in the one week the cash is not there. Found by placing every commitment on the week the cash leaves and the week it comes back.

2How to fix it

Approve, delay or split the order against the cash curve, before it is signed. Payment terms and delivery timing become part of the approval.

3The result

The credit line stops covering the gap. At a bespoke build firm, purchases timed to client payments retired a $300,000 loan early.

You already have a 13-week model. It does not know about this purchase

A treasury forecast carries inventory as one lump per month. This starts from the purchase orders themselves, so the commitment you are about to sign appears on the cash line before you sign it.

It runs 20 weeks, because the damage lands after 13

Materials are committed now, the customer pays on their own terms, and retentions land later still. A 13-week horizon stops exactly where project money gets tight.

The assumptions are on screen, and yours to change

Payment terms, receipt timing, the buffer. Move one and the low point moves, so a disagreement with the team becomes a number instead of an argument.

It names the week, not the trend

The week, the figure, and how far under the buffer it goes. That is the sentence you repeat in the meeting.

Purchase commitments · the next 20 weeks

The purchase order that breaks the cash plan.

Harbor Fabrication · about $26M in sales · $3.0M credit line · US dollars

Try it

Move the order, the terms or the delivery, and watch the credit line.

Supplier terms
Delivery
Lowest headroom on the line
Weeks over the $3.0M limitThe bank has to approve an overdraft, or payments wait.
Weeks under the $250K bufferThe headroom the owner wants to keep for surprises.
Interest to carry the orderAt 9% a year, until the customer's payments bring the line back down.
Without this orderWith this orderThe $3.0M limit$250K buffer

The decision

Four ways to place the same order, compared before it is signed.

Each option runs through the same 20 weeks. Click one to see it on the chart. The obvious fix is not always the safe one.

Week by week

Where the money goes, and the week it runs out.

WeekCustomer payments inPayroll and overheadOther supplier paymentsThis orderHeadroom on the line
Basis of preparation. Harbor Fabrication is a worked example. About $26M in sales; a $3.0M credit line with $1.85M drawn today; payroll and overhead of $185,000 a week; supplier payments on orders already placed. The Delmar job: price $1,450,000, steel order $640,000 delivered 3 weeks after it is placed, paid on the supplier's terms after delivery. The customer pays 30% six weeks after the steel arrives and 70% at completion, six weeks later. Headroom is the $3.0M limit less what is drawn; every week's movement equals customer payments in less payroll, overhead and supplier payments out. The pattern comes from a real project-based client, where timing purchases to client payments retired a $300,000 loan ahead of schedule.